David Quammen, a science writer who predicted the COVID-19 pandemic in his 2012 book Spillover: Animal Infections and the Next Human Pandemic, has expressed concerns about the next potential pandemic—bird flu (H5N1).

He believes it has the highest chance of becoming the next global threat due to its potential to mutate and infect humans.

Although there’s no evidence of widespread human-to-human transmission yet, Quammen warns that the rapid replication of the virus in animals, especially in factory farms, increases the risk of mutation.

While experts continue to monitor the situation, Quammen emphasizes that the unpredictable nature of viruses makes the outcome uncertain.

He compared the situation to a roulette wheel, where the chances of a pandemic increase with more viral replications.

He also warned that human activities, such as factory farming and overconsumption, contribute to the risk of new outbreaks by disrupting ecosystems and enabling viruses to spill over from animals to humans.

Quammen urges stricter measures for climate change, biosecurity, and reducing meat consumption to prevent future pandemics, and advises people to reconsider family size and consumption habits to help reduce the global risk.